I don’t know about you, but I am confused, perplexed and baffled.  In a word, muddled.  How long is the “lock down” likely to continue? and how much damage is to be expected?; or, not to put too fine a point on it; how many are going to die?

Less than 3 weeks ago (which feels like ages – Harold Convolvulus Wilson  spoke true) we were told that the UK was all set to let the virus rampage through the population, with a consequential death toll of between 1 and 2%.  that is to say, expected deaths, mainly amongst the elderly, of between say, 650,000 and 1,000,000).   Today the front page of my newspaper carries an estimate by some expert epidemiologist, of a total toll of around 5,000.  That is, of course partly due to the the change in policy from “mitigation” to suppression,” partly due to a firmer grounding of fact, and partly because of Robey’s Rule which states that “no expert will ever produce an estimate of anything which agrees with that produced by any other expert, or by himself at any other point in time.”  To put it another way: fair enough.

Certainly, considerable confusion remains.   Lower down the same front page carries another article suggesting  that current restrictions may endure for 6 months.  The two are not necessarily inconsistent: it may be that restrictions save lives, loads of them.

But thoughts are turning to the long term implications of all this and  – putting aside the economic ramifications, which are stupendous  –  if it transpires that politicians did not follow their own rules, and that despite prognostications of doom,  it turns out that just a few thousand die I’m not sure the standing of our political “masters” will rise very far.