I am aware of the ambiguity of today’s headline: it could be a reference to the apparent success of hard-line Brexiters in government in pressing ahead with their insane program of national destruction. But, it isn’t. It is instead a reference to the collective sigh of relief at relaxation of the toughest of the lock-down restrictions: we are heading into a Fool’s Paradise. Now I’ll tell you why.
I cannot call it a government “plan,” because there clearly is not one, but there is, let us call it a prime ministerial plea, for the public to go out and spend. Shops, cafés and restaurants can now open, people are returning to work, the 2-m rule is teetering on withdrawal. Breathe easy and let spondulicks flow.
The re-awakening of the UK is patchy: devolved governments are markedly more cautious than Johnson’s – but then they do not have the same requirement to get the donations rolling in. The lock-down could not go on for ever, and other European countries are also opening up. I believe the UK is unique in imposing quarantine restrictions on those coming from countries with lower rates of infection, but for this argument, that’s a quibble. The point is, any re-opening is fraught with danger.
Take, for example, the case of New Zealand, where there have been no new cases for 24 days. That is until a day or two ago, when 2 new cases were found (as it happens amongst people coming into the country, but that is by-the-by). From those 2 cases the NZ active tracing program has identified 320 “contacts,” to any one of whom the virus could have been passed. Yesterday the UK reported 1,115 new cases. You can work out the rest for yourselves.
I am not a doctor. In the words of Anthony Hancock, (though it might equally well have been said by Matt of that ilk), “I never really bothered,” but the son of a friend of mine is: he is a research scientist specialising in virology and immunology at a leading UK university. If his father is to believed, he says that amongst his colleagues it is not regarded as possible that there will be a “second spike,” but as certain, and it will likely start around September.
My advice – and I stress, I am no doctor – is stay cautious, and keep your hands in your trouser pockets.