Yesterday 73 people died of the virus in Germany, bringing the total of deaths to 8,001. 384 died in the UK, bringing the total to 33,998. The German population is around 83.5m, the UK population is 67.8m.
No wonder the UK government advises us not to make international comparisons.
The British economy retracted by 2% in the first quarter of this year. There are two points that can be made straight away, both obvious, and both consequential on the fact that the lockdown was only in place for one week in March:
1. the fall was not solely attributable to the virus: Brexit has rendered the UK economy damaged and vulnerable.
2. if you think a retraction of 2% is bad, just wait until you see the next quarter.
Oddly enough, and entirely out of character, I am not particularly downhearted by these figures in so far as they represent the impact of the virus. I am profoundly pessimistic about the impact of Brexit. Brexit has a damaging long term impact on our access to important markets: the virus is a shock to the system; it will – already has – hit production, employment, government revenues and so on, but I think healthy businesses will bounce back. One of the likely results will be a strengthening of the rights of low paid – and “gig” economy workers. Their financial muscle is likely to be joined by those whose spending has been artificially restrained by the lockdown who, as they are gradually released back into the economy, are likely to ramp their spending back up. It is no bad thing that companies without long term viability should be cleared out – it may be painful for a while, but in the longer term – say 3 or 4 years – their demise could result in a transformation of industry. Our reliance on overseas markets has been cruelly exposed with shortages of protective equipment; that, too, may have a long term benefit if it gives a fillip to British manufacturing. The critical point is market access – which is precisely why Brexit is so damaging, it hurts us in a peculiarly tender spot.
Will the British public come to their senses before it is too late – arguably they already have. Will the British government come to their senses – such as they are – before it is too late? Too early to tell, but one thing is sure they won’t give up without a fight, and that is going to hurt. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
The word “alert” can be an adjective, or a noun. As an adjective my dictionary defines it as “watchful, vigilant, lively, nimble.” It is not possible to be both “lively” and dead, so that is a bit of a relief.
The idea of being “watchful and nimble” in avoiding the virus is simply bizarre.
The dictionary adds that alert can also be used in the sense of “on the look out.” Imagine it: there you are walking round the supermarket; suddenly in a far aisle you see it, a virus, whizzing past the cornflakes, heading for the cheese, veering over soup and round the milk. Chuck a carrot at it, and scarper. Dodge behind the broccoli, quick as you can, and lose it in the asparagus.
Biggles could have done it. If some fiendish foe had threatened him with a deadly virus it would have been lying trussed, at the bottom of a freezer in seconds.
For weeks now the experts have been telling us that government advice, instructions, call them what you will, should be clear, unambiguous and responsible. In one word the Flatulent Leader has screwed it up. You only have to look at him, watchfully or not, to see the embodiment of the word “mess.”
Here is a comment, reported in The Guardian and attributed to an un-named member of the Government Advisory Group, SAGE:
“This government has failed to show any self-criticism whatsoever, when it is glaringly obvious to everybody that big mistakes have been made. If you want the trust of the population you hold up your hand and you say ‘we’ve made these mistakes, this is why they happened, we regret it, we’re learning from it’. Rather than just keep saying ‘we’ve done the most fantastic job’ and not being open to criticism in any way.”
It speaks for itself.
Today is VE Day. 75 years ago World War 2 ended in Europe. That is a matter for celebration. It is not a day for jingoistic “national” pride.
Allied forces were not just British. Commonwealth countries made a huge contribution, and we must not forget the bravery of Free French fighters, the Resistance, the Polish forces who carried on fighting with ferocious tenacity after their country was overrun, the Norwegians, the Yugoslav communists… the list goes on … and, of course, there were the Yanks.
VE Day is as much as anything a celebration of the United Kingdom’s place in an integrated world, our place in Europe.
That our prime minister today is a boastful coward, an incompetent, blown into office on the foul air of his lies and the votes of fools is a matter for national shame. Britain did, does and ever will belong in Europe. VE Day reminds us that our place is at the forefront of Europe not skulking on the edges whining and whingeing.
I once had lunch with a bastard. A real bastard. I know he was, because the prime minister of the day, Major Minor, said so. Towards the right of the Tory party, the gentleman concerned was an anti-European and if he were alive today would, undoubtedly, be a Brexiteer.
Sir Richard may have had extreme views on Europe, but he was far from a fool and he knew how the world works. The art of politics, he told me, is compromise: “we work together.” There is good bluster, on both sides, to keep the troops happy, but when they get down to it, in the back rooms where policy becomes reality, politicians work together. And that spirit of co-operation can be seen today – 25 years after our conversation, in the functioning of the Parliamentary Select Committees.
In recent years it has been the Select Committees rather than the Opposition that has held the government to account, at least to some extent. That may change somewhat now that Keir Starmer leads Labour, but the spirit lives on. Starmer has a track record of working with politicians from other parties to achieve his goals. And that is well and good, because as pressure grows – not least in the fetid ranks of Tory backbenchers – to release the lock-down, we enter its most dangerous phase.
I came across a report produced by Reuters which pretty much speaks for itself. Titled: “In shielding its hospitals from COVID-19, Britain left many of the weakest exposed” the report provides a devastating assessment of the incompetence and cruelty of government policy. So far as I am aware, Reuters is an independent news organisation not known for its left wing bias.
Cowardice and bullying go hand in hand. It therefore came as little surprise to learn that one of the Flatulent Leader’s cronies, homosexual MP Conor Burns, has resigned for being found to have used his position as an MP (with ample access to the Commons stationery cupboard) to threaten a member of the public.
Last night Professor Ferguson resigned from Sage because he had received visits from his partner, who lives elsewhere, to his home. On 10 April government minister Robert Jenrick did not resign from government although he had traipsed half way round the country making visits to relatives. I called for his resignation then, and I call for his resignation now.
Professor Ferguson, by his own admission, made a mistake. He advised one course of action and followed another. However, he was not taking an irresponsible risk, as the Flatulent Leader did by walking around shaking hands with those he knew had the virus: in the profs case, he’d had a dose and believed, with reason, that he had immunity. It seems he may have had a point, as he has not gone down sick again. It is a terrible shame: we owe him much – in fact about 650,000 people in the UK probably owe him their lives. Nevertheless, he was right to go: senior people should set an example, and hypocrisy has an unpleasant taste.
But – and it is a big, a ginormous, BUT – the same standards should apply to politicians as to their advisers. Jenrick should go and the Flatulent Leader should go: they’ve both done much worse than the prof.
Take a listen to this: West Side Story. They may “wanna” be in America. I don’t. Not now, not in the past and not in the future. I “wanna” stay on my side of the Pond, period. And I dare say, gentle reader, that you may well feel likewise.
So maybe you are as downhearted as me to hear that trade negotiations for a post-Brexit “deal” with the US are due to begin, imminently. Put aside the thought that no self-respecting prime minister could authorise anything other than a maximum distance between a British government and the regime, if it can be called that, of President Donald Duck . Forget his crass racism, his sexism, his dumb insults, his craven sucking up to bullies and tyrants the world over. This is not a man we should wish to be associated with: he stands, if he stands for anything, not just for “America first,” but “America first, second and last; damn the rest.” Quite apart from all that, he’s on the ropes: the manner in which he has addressed the onset of the virus has, if nothing else, left his chances of re-election severely diminished. I hope.
Moreover, any deal that might be struck will be on their terms, not ours. The insanity of Brexit means that we are the ones in desperate need of a deal, any deal; not them. And, if President Don is known for anything it is driving a hard bargain in what he perceives as his own interests, giving no quarter.
To walk away from our European market, to introduce barriers to trade, at at any time would be irresponsible lunacy. To do so at a time when our economy is under strain like never before is self-destructive insanity. The Europeans have treated us with considerable courtesy and patience throughout the last 4 years; even now they have offered us the opportunity to extend our departure and to participate in their schemes for alleviation of some of the worst impacts of the virus (not least, the purchase of protection equipment in bulk). Why should we walk away ?
That question can be answered in one word: dogma. The people driving Brexit forward are not remotely interested in the good of our economy; they have already shredded our reputation for diplomacy and good management: they are in it for one thing: their self-interest greed. And the terrible truth is, I doubt if they can now be stopped.
The result of all this is that far from entering trade negotiations on an equal footing, no longer is our motto “Cry God for Harry [and come to think of it, even he has departed, State-side] , England and St George,” but “Buddy, can you spare a dime ?”
Lies and Rules 