Sunak

Like everybody else, my knowledge of Rishi Sunak is slight.  But it is apparent that a boy is being asked to do a man’s job.

Johnson has surrounded himself with 3 key ministers , Sunak, Raab and Patel, not one of whom is remotely up to the job.  Sunak appears quite simply out of his depth, Raab remains Hell bent on Brexit, and as for Patel, well, words fail me.

It is increasingly clear that the government is not managing the crisis, and realisation that the primary duty of government is safe-guarding its citizens not forcing through some damn stupid dogma, has yet to dawn.

So what? So a lot less!

The UK FTSE index fell by 639 points today to 5,237.48.  Not so long ago it stood close to 8,000 (ie it is down by around 35%, and fell around 11% today alone). Does that matter?

Yes, it does.  It matters enormously.  First and foremost because large numbers of younger people – not to mention a few of those more seasoned – have their future security tied up in defined contribution pensions schemes (ie schemes for which they know what they have paid in, but have no idea what they will get out).   Accumulated contributions are invested in the markets, and a massive fall will have a stunning impact on the value of pensions when they are drawn.

Secondly, many savers make use of the markets to try and generate a return over and above the measly offerings on offer from the banks.  It is worth noting that the low interest environment form which savers have suffered for the last dozen or so years is the direct result of “quantitative easing” – providing ready money to the banks when they would otherwise have had to bid for deposits. But I digress: the key point is that as the value of their savings fall many consumers will rein in their expenditure. The consequent fall in demand will hit suppliers right where it hurts.

Thirdly, there is the impact on business to think about.  It is hard to raise funds in a falling market.  Investors face losses  and have less to spare for other projects: banks find themselves writing down the value of their portfolios, and writing up the losses on loans they have made to investment companies.

It is also worth remembering that big falls in the markets tend by their nature to be destabilising: as losses are made and stop loss limits triggered portfolios liquidated in an effort to stem the  tide in fact do precisely the reverse: they drive yet further falls.

The Clangers

I wonder when the penny will drop.   Nobody – least of all me – thought the bunch of xenophobes and nut-cases who voted for Brexit were bright, but are they really so dim?

Do they realise that by turning on the money tap Rishi Sunak, the Sooty (as in Sooty and Sweep) of British politics,  is damning the years of austerity as entirely unnecessary?

Do they realise that by starving the NHS of funds voters lives have been placed in jeopardy?

Do they realise that in sucking up to countries ruled by “strongmen” and tyrants, the Flatulent Leader and his crew of yes-men demean us in the eyes of the world?

Do they realise that the lack of an articulated and disseminated plan for dealing with coronavirus has wasted time, money and lives?

’til death us do part

“Downing Street is now locked in a row with the Department of Health over access to the EU pandemic early warning system. No 10 is allegedly preventing the department from attending meetings with EU officials to coordinate a response to the crisis. The reason for this reckless politicisation of a medical emergency is that it would risk giving the EU leverage in negotiations. ”  These words, from an article by Nesrine Malik in The Guardian (you can find the hole article here) are chilling.

This is not what Brexit was supposed to be about, and that was bad enough.  I am certain that people who voted for Brexit did not do so in the expectation that it would endanger lives, theirs.  And for now, it seems there is no way to remove the Flatulent Leader and his repulsive, incompetent team from office.  We can only sit and wait to find what tomorrow brings.  That is assuming  we remain around long enough to find out.

This is not an opinion

I have never met either Priti – Pee-pee – Patel or Sir Philip Rutnam.  I do not know the nature of their relationship, save that there is reason to believe it somewhat acrimonious; and, as to the rights and wrongs, of recent accusations, it is not for me opine. So, I won’t.

What I will do, however, is comment on the invidious position in which the Cabinet Secretary is now placed.  A considerable number of Tory MPs, including to my incredulity, the prime minister himself, have issued robust statements in support of P-P, who is, they say, a first class minister doing an excellent job.  Aspersions have been cast against the Sir Philips of Westminster, artfully suggesting that senior civil servants lack the necessary skills and training to deliver, and that when up against a determined minister, that can lead to “frustration.”  They have even cited examples (oddly, all from Labour administrations) – Dennis Healey is the one I heard most recently – of robust ministers who encountered civil service obduracy.  My memory may be going: robust he may have been, but I do not remember any civil servant resigning in the face of bullying from Lord Healey, far less of taking legal action against him.

So, if the Cabinet Secretary comes down in support of his colleague, the wrath of the Tories will be upon him; and if he does not, one may wonder what message that will send the thousands of civil servants charged with implementing the policies of the most right wing government in living memory, comprised to a shocking degree, of yes-men and incompetents.

It is for those reasons that Labour is absolutely right to call for an independent enquiry by a suitably experienced and impartial lawyer.

Om mani padme hum

Boris Johnson is not just a politician, he is – for better or for  worse – prime minister.  That gives him a duty;  protector in chief, if you will.  Seen in that light the information he chose to share yesterday concerning the likely onset of coronavirus was a disgrace.  He told us the worst case scenario would be contagion of around 80% of the UK population of 66.5m, due to escalate rapidly and, probably,  to peak in May.   Given that the death rate seems to have slowed to around 1% that implies that in the next 2.5 months, 75 days, between mid-March and end May, roughly 8,900 people will die per day, in addition to the usual mortality rate.  It is shocking: bodies will be stockpiled in morgues.  Still, according to Johnson, they can die with pride, in the sound knowledge that Britain is a “wonderful country” with a health service that is amongst “the world’s finest,” the jewel in the lotus as you might say – not a crumbling edifice starved of funds and facing a chronic shortage of staff.

Of advice there was almost none: wash your hands.  My God, I would never have thought of that.  Johnson’s suggestion that the 20 seconds considered necessary to wash thoroughly can be judged by a rendition of the National Anthem is, frankly, bizarre.   Of course, Her Majesty can hardly warble the anthem herself, which is a shame as at 93 she is one of the group classed most vulnerable.

One method proposed to contain the spread is “self-isolation.”  Otherwise known as immuration, it is a technique practiced by Tibetan yogi – with some risk to their mental health.  Unfortunately, although the incubation period (14 days) has been shared, the length of time necessary for effective self-isolation remains a mystery.

Another alternative, and perhaps as effective as any that Johnson has come up with, is simply to sit back and let fate decide.  Om mani padme hum, as the Tibetan mantra runs: hail to the jewel in the lotus

Don’t panic !

I am not a doctor.  In the words of Tony Hancock, “I never really bothered.” So anything I have to say about matters of health needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt.  That having been said, I do have one or two observations on the UK’s preparedness for coronavirus:

  • reliable, accurate and uptodate public information is a must.  That is incompatible with banning government ministers from appearing on serious news media, including but not limited to The Today program.
  • for the prime minister to defer a Cobra meeting in the face of a potential health catastrophe is unforgivable.
  • the latest suggestion form government that retired doctors and health officials will be re-called to duty sits oddly with the fact that coronavirus is most deadly for the elderly.

A list to port

The Chancellor has a plan.  Well, that’s a start I suppose.  The trouble is that his plan appears – as with so much of the “government” that we are enduring – to be driven by ideology not economics.  He favours “free ports.”

Free ports are trading zones where there is little or no tax payable until good cross their boundaries and enter the country proper.  They are supposed to  – and may – promote trade.  Goods can be landed, stored, handled, manufactured or reconfigured and re-exported without being subject to customs duty.  The trouble is that the EU has identified them as doing rather more than that; specifically, “identifying that their special tariff and duty status has aided the financing of terrorism, money laundering and organised crime.”  It does not, then come as a complete surprise top learn that they are popular with high-net-worth individuals and criminal organisations amongst others seeking to circumvent recent crackdowns on bank secrecy.