Of eggs and baskets

The outcome of the US presidential election has, after 4 days, still to be announced.  It is in the balance, albeit tilting a bit.  There are those who might think it behoved other governments to behave with due caution and respect for process.

Not so Kemal-Johnson, he certainly knows how to ingratiate himself with both sides. He even refuses to confirm that it is right and proper that all votes should be counted. I’m not too sure that’ll go down all that well should the outcome be a new occupant ni the White House.

In any event, the Tory party has, wilfully and deliberately, allied itself to one of the most controversial presidents there has ever been. Images of Mrs May holding hands with him, Piggling Gove smirking alongside, and Kemal-Johnson partaking of what appears to be a riotous dinner may have seemed like good politics once, but don’t seem so clever now.

As for HM Queen, this weekend she must be using more detergent than would fill a swimming pool – and I doubt if she’s injecting it.

Too clever by half

Lord Sumption is a very clever man – indeed he has been called the “cleverest man in England,” and he is , I suspect, aware of it.  Nobody, however, is infallible; and one problem with very clever people is that on the rare occasions when they are wrong, they tend to be very wrong.

In an article for The Guardian Lord Sumption argues fervently against the national lock down that began this morning.  It will, he says, achieve nothing save frustration, misery and worse. People will be incarcerated for no purpose, and when it is lifted, the virus will accelerate. He may be right.

Or he may not. It is, unquestionably, true that the cost of lockdown, both economically and psychologically is  severe and long lasting; it is also true that it is the elderly and infirm, a reasonably identifiable cohort, who are most at risk.  Further he may well be correct in imagining that, in all probability,  the four weeks “gained” will be frittered away. Certainly the government has demonstrated itself quite incapable of creating and administering an effective track and trace regime – partly because it will insist on allocating contracts to Brexit supporting chums who lack intelligence, experience and integrity, but that’s another story.

Nevertheless, Lord Sumption’s  suggestion that the appropriate response to the virus is simply to lock away the most vulnerable and leave others to fend for themselves is wrong, for a number of reasons. First, without an effective testing system, which we do not have,  it is not possible to identify many of those carrying the virus.  An apparently healthy person could well turn out to be a carrier who transmits the virus into the care homes in which his Lordship would have the vulnerable concentrated: result carnage.  Second, it is not the case that the old die and the young recover: would that it were so simple.  We should all follow the medical guidance and wear masks, wash hands regularly and so on, but some don’t. That may be their choice, but it might not be them that pays the price.   Third, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the time gained could be used productively: four weeks closer to production of a vaccine, a decent track and trace system; or simply four weeks further through a cold wet winter in which the health service is traditionally under greatest pressure.

Lord Sumption is a lawyer. And as a lawyer he is absolutely right to point out the terrible infringement of freedoms that lockdown entails, he is right to say that government by lockdown should be a last resort, entered into only under the explicit supervision of Parliament.  The legal principle of freedom of the individual is indeed vitally important, and we should remain alive to it

Happy Christmas

Yesterday, 2nd November:  Alexander Kemal (aka Johnson) announced another national “lock-down.”  That is scheduled to last one month, until 2nd December.

There will then be a short interval.

2nd January:  Brexit, deal or no deal.

That is not government.   It is insanity.

The owl did scream

Faced with the worst, most incompetent, most corrupt, government in living memory what does Labour do?  It turns its tanks not against Kemal (known to some as “Johnson”) and his ranks of putrid failures, but against its own left flank.

In truth there was no choice.  The accusations of anti-Semitism under Corbyn’s leadership are unanswerable.   Abject apology and remedial action are the only way forward.  I believe Corbyn to be a good and decent man, but utterly unsuited to the leadership of a main-line political party: his views are too marginal and his personality not suited to effective administration.   It must be added that the majority of voters disagreed, profoundly: they thought him utterly unfit for government and the Tory majority at the last election is due at least as much to the Leader of the Opposition as to the victor.

That is bad enough. The country is paying a price, terrible in its extortion. But compounded by the statement Corbyn released yesterday, essentially denying the thrust of the report on anti-Semitism  in the party. At that point it became clear: as with Rebecca Long-Bailey. He had to go.

Labour is now plunged into civil war.  That may not be a bad thing.  In fact, blood letting is arguably the quickest way to cauterize the wound of Corbyn-ism.   The majority of voters did not like (well, did not vote for) Corbyn and his left of centre policies: the most effective way to demonstrate that they no longer lurk is to dismiss him: brutal,  but effective. So effective, in fact, that this may be the point at which Starmer shows himself to be truly prime minister in waiting.  I do not think he wanted this moment, but comes the hour and comes the man.

And if there are some rough months ahead, well, that’s no bad thing.  We are not yet at the end of year one of a fixed term government, with four years to come.  Starmer has shewn himself master of detail, master of the pithy phrase, a clever and able administrator.   Is he ruthless?  There was a glimpse of the switch-blade  in his treatment of Long-Bailey.  There can now be no doubt:  he has screwed his courage to the sticking point.

And he’ll not fail.

Здравствуйте

Alexander Kemal (aka “Johnson” – incidentally, he is no more a “Johnson” than I am – my g-grandmother, too, was a “Johnson” – in her case the daughter of an honest Northampton cobbler) faces legal action over his refusal to investigate Russian meddling in UK elections.

I don’t blame him – if I were a prime minister Hell bent on a policy that will destroy the UK’s economy and international reputation, applauded by the Kremlin, but not by a majority of the British; and if I too had elevated to the House of Lords the son of a distinguished former member of the KGB; I too would be reluctant to set up an investigation that might, just, question my connections and my motives.

I blog, therefore I am

There are many ways that anybody with a bit of time on their hands could use it worse than watching Lord Sumption’s recent lecture on “Government by Decree.”   His Lordship explains why the government’s slide towards “rule by decree,” is a dangerous erosion of democracy.  He cites examples in which both government ministers and the police, have assumed powers they do not, in actuality, possess.  His examples are primarily centred on the government response to Covid-19, which he sees as a dangerous disease, but not excessively so.

On the subject of le virus” (did you know that in French the “virus” is masculine, but “Covid-19” feminine ?  Ah, the wiles of the distaff side) let me concede at once, that in a sense he is right. There have been worse: the Spanish flu epidemic killed around 228,000 in the UK, a figure dwarfed by the Black Death (1348/9) which may have killed as many as 2m, estimates vary between 20 and 60% of the UK population.  The current toll for the virus is 45,365.   But in a sense he is wrong.  The figure for UK death attributed to the virus – dubious as it is  –  is arrived in the aftermath of best medical practice and with every trick known to government statisticians. So it is bad, probably very bad.  And it might get worse.   Nobody knows.

Lord Sumption is a lawyer and an historian, not a doctor. And on the subject of the legal implications of government action he is authoritative: he says the government have exceeded their powers.  It seems wilfully so.  He sees that this could escalate into a slide from democracy towards dictatorship – a word used recently, with chilling effect, by his peer, Lord Neuberger.  No doubt he is right. The very idea that government ministers can “instruct” the healthy bulk of the population – to give up rights of freedom of movement, and freedom of action – without proper Parliamentary scrutiny is clearly worrying, and that their decrees are then enforced – without a legal basis – by various police forces, certainly takes us a step nearer to being  a police state.

The key question is what can we do about it ? And his Lordship’s answer is illuminating: hold our democracy to account: question MPs, join in political debate. write, and even…  yes, blog.

A little maths

The first duty of an government – any government – is the protection of its people. So the realisation that the UK is amongst the top 10 countries in the world is not a good start. But, we are not the only European country in the hit parade. France and Spain also feature,  the telling point is, though, that number of virus deaths in Spain is, currently, 35,031  and France 35,018.  the number of deaths in the UK is 44,998, ie around 28% higher.

And then consider the lunacy of a country already reeling from the enormous cost and disruption of the virus  whose government drives forward with a policy fully expected to bring about short – and quite likely long – term turmoil despite the wish of the majority to forget all about it.

Alexander Kemal has long wanted his place in the history books: he’ll get it: the man who headed the destruction of the country; and didn’t seem to care.

The Turk: ‘ee’s voting for Christmas

Let’s call a spade a spade: prime minister “Johnson’s” paternal grandfather was Osman Kemal, a Turk.  In my book that makes him – no matter what he may care to call himself – Alexander Kemal.  Rather more unsavoury material lingers in the familial arbor, but I won’t go into it now.   Suffice to say, for those readers who think I am being a trifle unfair, and that a man is not responsible for his ancestry – far less the behaviour – of his grandparents: Osman Kemal was, by all accounts, a drunken lay-about – bear in mind that the one thing he did do was change his name: one Wilfrid Johnson emerged from the chrysalis that had been Osman Kemal.  And what name has our own Alexander Kemal chosen for his latest sprog? Wilfrid.  I’ll say no more.

I will, however, point out that Mr Kemal’s widely acknowledged penchant for a flutter, almost invariably involves somebody else putting up the stakes.  Brexit being the obvious example: he became PM, we stand to have our economy and international reputation trashed.  “It’ll be all right. Be brave,” he exhorts us even while rushing to hide himself in a ‘fridge, or wherever it is he’s cowering now: for one thing is sure, by comparison in terms of  leadership,  the captain of the Mary Celeste can be seen stomping the decks to this day.  “Kemal the invisible,” would be an entirely appropriate soubriquet.

Mr Kemal’s corrosive effects,  and there have been many,  have included an exhortation to the public to disregard, and deride the advice of experts, be they doctors, diplomats or economists.  “We can make up our own minds,” he assures us,  before going on to explain the short term impact of an issue and leaving the long term to go hang.  He always offers what is easy, now. Hence the changes in policy for dealing with the virus, hence the lies on the Brexit bus: forget the future, tell Brussels we’ll take charge of our own future; stay at home, eat out, lock down, wear masks or don’t, expect a vaccine.   Die.  His policy advice is exactly that of the turkey farmer to his brainless birds: “eat up, there’ll be another lovely meal tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow… and at Christmas.  Except that you’ll provide it.”

One of the many punts in which Mr Kemal has indulged himself – and us –  is, of course, rolling out across the Pond.  A US-UK trade agreement would, he assured us, be quick, simple and favourable.  It wouldn’t, and its likelihood of happening any time soon on terms Mr Kemal desires – assuming he gives a toss, which I doubt – hangs on the result of the US election.  Donald Duck may be anxious to tear down the EU and all who trade with it, Democrat Joe isn’t.

So Mr Kemal has positioned us nicely: hope and pray, for the sake of the world, that Presidential election goes one way, and if it does, stand by for further economic hardship and a reduction of our “soft power.”  Very clever, very cunning.  Put it another way, whatever the result, the UK has about as much to gain as a turkey voting for Christmas.

Give that man a chlorinated turkey sandwich.